Notre Dame Early 2025 Game by Game Projections

Using SP+ ratings to break down projected spreads, win probabilities, and high expectations for Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish moving into Year 4 and spring practice

The week of Bill Connelly’s spring SP+ rankings and returning production metrics is one of my favorites of the offseason. It ushers in the new season, with some early projections that bring a different flavor than the ubiquitous “Way-Too-Early Top 25s” that seem to multiply and be released earlier every year.

Notre Dame checks in at #5 in these early projections, building off last year’s top-5 performance with middle of the pack returning production (62nd overall). It’s a terrific early outlook for Year 4 of the Freeman era - other top title contenders deal with far more turnover. The only three teams that finished ahead of the Irish in F+ lose a ton - Ohio State is 101st in returning production, Oregon 109th, and Ole Miss 113th (another early title favorite in Vegas, Texas, is 103rd).

You could make a case these ratings are even slightly pessimistic for the Irish offense, a unit that checks in at 88th in returning production. Connelly’s formula heavily weights returning OL snaps and WR/TE yards - two areas where Notre Dame lost a lot on paper but in reality should be upgrading the talent level.

For example, the old SP+ calculator sees Rocco Spindler, Pat Coogan, and Sam Pendleton’s transfers as a massive loss (over 2,000 OL snaps!). But all three of those veterans transferred because Joe Rudolph and the staff believe they can upgrade those positions with a healthy Charles Jagusah, Ashton Craig recovering from injury, and a host of talented young blue chippers competing for jobs.

With a very strong projection for the Irish and no elite opponent on the 2025 schedule, SP+ projects 10.15 wins. This is the second highest total for Notre Dame since Connelly created SP+ in 2008 - topped only by least year’s projection of 10.43 wins. There’s just two games where the Irish are predicted to be less than 12-point favorites - the first two games of the season at Miami and hosting Texas A&M.

Months away from the start of the season, Vegas win totals agree, with Notre Dame set at 10.5 juiced to the under¹. The over/under numbers suggest it will again be a struggle for the Irish to build up a resume of ranked wins - at least from Power 4 opponents. The Hurricanes over/under is about 9 wins (I’ve seen 8.5 with odds leaning heavily to the over, 9.5 heavy under), the Aggies and Trojans both at 7.5. It’s not a hot take to believe Notre Dame’s best chances at ranked wins at the end of the year come from Boise State and Navy.

A closer look at the 2025 matchups

Let’s dive a bit deeper into the 2025 opponents - their early SP+ ratings, and what the projections might be missing. SP+ calculates ratings building off of last year’s final ratings, returning production, recruiting, and historical program performance. Having a sense for this formula’s weighting combined with experience monitoring preseason projections into performance over the years gives me a good feel for what I’m “buying” and “selling” versus SP+ expectations.

Miami: SELLING HARD as a top-15 team

SP+ projects the Canes as the #1 offense in 2025, repeating their top rank from 2024 with Cam Ward. This feels incredibly generous! The offensive line should be really good, and Carson Beck (if healthy) gives them a solid floor. But dreams of re-capturing the Beck of 2023 feel unrealistic. First, his health (which is a blind spot for SP+). Even if he makes a full recovery, there’s virtually no time for him to get live reps in OC Shannon Dawson’s system and building rapport with receivers.

Speaking of the receivers, there was also a complete overhaul of the WR room in Coral Gables. It was a complete exodus, losing the top 5 receivers (WR + TE) and ~3,800 of their 4,500 receiving yards last season. The replacements are underwhelming, highlight by LSU transfer CJ Daniels (who disappointed in Baton Rouge after a 1,000 yard season at Liberty). Unless they poach an elite WR in the spring portal window (not impossible), this feels a lot like the Dawgs offense Beck struggled in last year with a lack of reliable WRs.

Miami resembles USC’s projection last year, where despite some obvious losses (including a Heisman-level QB) they were projected as a top-5 unit, then finished 15th in Offensive F+. So much has to go right for them to achieve this, including a slight step forward defensively with a new DC and completely imported secondary from the portal.

Texas A&M: HOLD as the toughest 2025 opponent, SELL as an SEC / CFP dark horse

I promise I’m not being a homer selling Notre Dame’s toughest two opponents, but I’m slightly skeptical of Texas A&M too. Their floor feels safer than Miami’s, yet I wonder how much of their returning production (6th overall) will translate into progress on the field. Still, this feels like the biggest challenge on the 2025 schedule given the blue chip talent on the roster plus potential for steps forward in Year 2 for so many pieces (Collin Klein’s offense, QB Marcel Reed, Elko’s defense).

The offensive foundation will be built on a strong ground game, where there’s loads of RB talent, Reed is dynamic with his legs, and virtually the entire OL returns. Will Reed’s passing game limitations continue to hold them back? There’s some reasons for hope (strong pressure to sack ratio) and concern (bad accuracy, via his adjusted completion rate) in his 2024 numbers.

The Aggies portaled a brand new WR room, but the pieces don’t fit seamlessly together - it’s a bunch of fast, smaller guys who may be best suited at slot receiver. These are a bunch of quality players - NC State’s Kevin Concepcion, Mississippi State’s Mario Craver, and returning WR (former 5*) Terry Bussey are all incredibly dangerous. But they are similar bodies, and Texas Tech former 5* Micah Hudson was a gem of their transfer haul that may not even join the team at this point.

The defense should be solid, but I also worry SP+ underestimates the departing level on the defensive line. Nic Scourton, Shemar Stewart, and Shemar Turner are capital D Dudes that will be high NFL picks. Are we sure the defense is going to be better than last year’s (20th in Defensive F+)? I’m not sold.

At #12, I think this this is closer to the ceiling than baseline for Mike Elko in Year 2. And even using this favorable projection, the Aggies are slated to play seven opponents projected as one-possession games, including three road trips where they will be underdogs (in South Bend, Austin, and Baton Rouge). Even a strong season is more likely to end up like 2024 - where A&M was 15th in F+ but 8-4 before a bowl loss - than a CFP bid.

Boise State and USC: HOLD …which will mean very different things for their records

The Broncos are essentially getting a “hold” from SP+ projections too - they finished 27th in F+ and are projected 31st. That’s the right stance to take for a team that loses its critical piece in Ashton Jeanty but returns roughly 16 starters and QB Maddux Madsen.

After the trip to Notre Dame, the Broncos next toughest game is hosting projected #70 UNLV. They’ll be favored in all remaining games and to again grab the G5 playoff spot. It’s a nice set-up both for Boise and Notre Dame to have a shot at a highly ranked win in a schedule without many great chances for them.

Top-30 also feels accurate for USC, but that’s probably not the dream for the Trojans going into Year 4 of Lincoln Riley. Southern Cal actually finished 20th in F+ but underachieved in the wins column. After a portal exodus they’re 97th in returning production for 2025.

That’s not going to translate into playoff contention against a B1G schedule that is deep on quality opponents. The Trojans will be a big underdog in road trips to Notre Dame (16 points per SP+), and projected #6 Oregon. They also travel to #25 Illinois and #34 Nebraska, and host #13 Michigan and #21 Iowa.

Arkansas: SELL as a consistent top-40 team, but it will still be a scary road trip

The Razorbacks were #37 last year in F+, so this isn’t an egregious ranking at 35th. But Sam Pittman’s team was incredibly inconsistent last year, with a horrible loss to Oklahoma State and getting destroyed by LSU and Ole Miss. The good performances were highlighted by an upset of Tennessee, beating Auburn, and “quality losses” to Texas and Texas A&M.

A lot of this is thanks to QB Taylen Green, the talented Boise transfer who will be back this fall. He’s a phenomenal athlete but was turnover-prone, with 12 fumbles and 9 picks. Returning production (64th overall) is middle of the pack, with tons of portal churn and a new WR room. The Razorbacks best days will generate some upsets, but the inconsistency will likely lead to another season clawing toward bowl eligibility.

Mid-tier ACC teams: BUY Pitt and SELL Syracuse and NC State as potential traps

Miami is the easy top ACC opponent, and Boston College and Stanford the easiest (conveniently those two are also away games). The middle tier includes a clump of NC State, Syracuse, and Pitt that are ranked between #45-57 (within ~3 points in power rating). In this group, I think NC State and Syracuse are overrated and the Panthers underrated.

The Wolfpack finished 2024 at 64th in F+. The offense should improve, with CJ Bailey developing as a skilled sophomore. But the OL is in flux, and the defense was crushed in the portal. I think small improvement led by the defense is more likely than jumping ~20 spots.

Syracuse had a great first season under Fran Brown, led by the 11th (!) ranked offense. But the defense was 82nd, and so few pieces of last year’s offense return. They say goodbye to QB Kyle McCord, a 1,000 yard rusher in LeQuint Allen, and the top-2 receivers in Oronde Gadsden and Jackson Meeks. Even if the defense works its way to respectability, it’s going to be rebuilding year for the offense with a big drop-off.

Meanwhile, Pitt is 27th in returning production after an year of dramatic swings. Pat Narduzzi’s squad started 7-0 against a soft schedule, then dropped their final six games. Early on things were clicking with transfer QB and returning starter Eli Holstein and new OC Kade Bell, but Holstein struggled with injuries throughout the second half of the year.

The case for a frisky, dangerous Pitt team is in play. The Panthers could re-capture some of that 1st half offensive magic, and have proven impact players with star all-purpose RB Desmond Reid and LB Kyle Louis (1st team all ACC). The upside of the offense clicking + Narduzzi conjuring up a top-40 defense is higher and more realistic than what I think the Pack or Orange can realistically hope for.

Navy: BUY as significantly underrated, especially on offense

The Midshipmen had a great 2024, finishing #35 in Offensive F+ and #44 overall. Breakout QB Blake Horvath is back, as is OC Drew Cronic, and Navy is 12th in returning offensive production. So how are they projected as just the 60th best offense?

This is more like a top-40 team and AAC contender (along with #50 Tulane, #52 Memphis, and #60 Army). There’s a great chance Navy comes to South Bend undefeated with a cakewalk early schedule before all the quality opponents all coming late (@ND, @Memphis in November before Army).

Purdue: SELL everything

The best case for the rebuilding Boilers is they quietly leave their large drum at home and sweep the trip to South Bend under the rug as quietly as possible. New HC Barry Odom’s realistic goal should be scraping out a single win in B1G play.

1. Fanduel at the moment has early win totals for P4 conferences and Notre Dame. Take these, like SP+ projections, as directional at this point given there’s probably pretty low limits on how much you can bet on these in March.