Shots in the Dark: Projecting this year's surprise CFP teams
What longshots have the best chance to do what Indiana, SMU, and Arizona State accomplished last year with a shocking College Football Playoff berth?
No one saw the Hoosiers coming. The Sun Devils were picked to finish dead last in the Big 12 in preseason media polls. Rhett Lashlee’s Mustangs were a trendy dark-horse pick in the ACC but not on anyone’s playoff radar.
Was 2024 an aberration, or will we see more surprise teams in this year’s 12 team playoff?
The conditions are ripe for more underdogs. Per Bill Connelly’s metrics (link), returning production is lower than ever in 2025. Six of the top eight title favorites (Ohio State, Texas, UGA, Penn State, Oregon, Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson) break in new starting quarterbacks this year.
Can we forecast the teams that have the best chance to surprise everyone and make the CFP this fall? More of these predictions will miss than hit - that’s the nature of picking these underdogs. But if we think about each team having a range of possible outcomes, some longshots have higher ceilings in their positive “tails” - and better chances to reach them - than others.
So for each power conference, I’ll identify an “Under the Radar” team that’s near the top of the conference but not a favorite (like SMU last year). Then I’ll take a shot at the best “Deep Sleeper” from the middle or bottom of the league where making the CFP would truly be shocking.
I’ve included current odds to make the playoff simply as context to help give a sense for how the market is viewing them and how surprising a CFP berth would be. This mission here is identifying the surprise playoff teams, not gambling advice or “best bets”.
The ACC
Under the Radar: Louisville (+275 to make CFP)
Jeff Brohm’s formula in Louisville is working year after year. They quietly finished 18th in F+ last year - ahead of Clemson - and the Cards keep finding QBs in the portal that Brohm can mesh into his offense and find success with, even if they aren’t the top-rated transfers.
2024 still has to feel like a missed opportunity - the Cardinals lost four games by a combined total of 24 points (including one-score losses to two CFP teams in SMU and Notre Dame). It also featured one of the worst losses of the year with this incredible ending in Palo Alto I cannot recommend highly enough:
What if Louisville flips a couple of these close games this year? Miller Moss isn’t a savior, but Brohm is incredible extracting the most from his QBs. If he can get to a Big Ten title game with Aidan O’Connell and an ACC championship with Jack Plummer, I don’t think Moss will hold the Cardinals back.
There’s bountiful skill position talent for Moss to work with. RB Isaac Brown is a stud, and Caullin Lacy and Chris Bell are the type of top receiving targets Brohm is great at funneling targets to.
The non-conference slate (Kentucky, James Madison, Bowling Green, Eastern KY) is very manageable. ACC opponents are tougher, with three preseason ranked teams. Still, if SMU and Miami regress (very possible!), Louisville is in prime position to contend for the ACC title and potentially an at-large CFP bid.
Deep Sleeper: Pitt (+1700 to make CFP)
The team that lost six straight games to end 2024? That’s why Pat Narduzzi’s team qualifies as a major dark horse. But what if the first seven games of last season are more indicative of what this Panthers team can be with QB Eli Holstein and OC Kade Bell fueling the offense?
In that opening stretch, Holstein - a Bama transfer and former top-150 recruit - had a 17-5 TD/INT split and flashed the ability to run when needed (over 50 yards rushing in four of seven games). Unfortunately Holstein battled a string of injuries down the stretch and Pitt’s offense evaporated. It’s possible opponents also adapted to Bell’s up-tempo, spread approach.
Desmond Reid is a versatile, All-American caliber back to pair with Holstein. I’d love if Narduzzi had landed a couple more dangerous receiving threats in the portal, but maybe some buy-low targets or in-house development guys break out. This can be a top 30 offense in the right conditions.
The defense also features returning studs, especially LBs Kyle Louis and Rasheem Biles. It’s a safe bet Narduzzi fixes things on that side of the ball - last year’s performance (57th in Defensive FEI) was the first year the Panthers have not been a top-40 defense since 2018. Pitt was top-10 nationally in sacks and tackles for a loss, but leaked explosive plays constantly and struggled getting off the field on 3rd down. The foundation is solid enough for Narduzzi to flip this defensive house next year.
The schedule isn’t too daunting either - the three biggest games (Louisville, Notre Dame, Miami) are all at home. Pitt has real upside to outperform their projections I can’t find in similar candidates like Boston College
Intriguing, But No: Virginia Tech (+1300 to make CFP)
It might shock you to learn the Hokies finished 30th in F+ last year despite going 6-7 - ahead of teams like Illinois and Colorado. Brent Pry’s team played a ton of close games and lost most of them, sometimes in spectacular ways (notably, the Hail Mary TD against Miami negated by ACC refs).
That combination of quality and close game luck profiles them as a sneaky ACC contender, especially with two new coordinators and the potential for a Kyron Drones bounceback at QB. There’s just not quite enough returning production here, and the nail in the coffin is a brutal schedule.
With a coach on the hot seat, Virginia Tech is opening against South Carolina (neutral site in Atlanta) then hosting Vanderbilt. Terrible idea! Last year they dropped non-con matchups with the Commodores and Rutgers. The year before VT nearly cost themselves a bowl losing to Purdue, Rutgers, and Marshall before ACC play.
I don’t get the scheduling philosophy at all for a program that is in desperate need for a breakthrough season. The ACC slate mercifully doesn’t include Clemson but catches a good chunk of the next tier of the league (Louisville, Miami, GT).
The Big Ten
Under the Radar: Washington (+900 to make CFP)
The Huskies suffered massive roster turnover in the Kalen DeBoer - Jedd Fisch transition, so it was no surprise they struggled their first year in the B1G. UW dropped all the way to 50th in F+ and a 6-7 finish, with some miserable losses (the Apple Cup, at Rutgers, non-competitive showings at IU, Penn State, and Oregon).
What could fuel a Year 2 surge? A breakout QB is the “easy button” for turnarounds, and sophomore Demond Williams is an electric athlete who can improvise. It’s a small sample size after taking over from Will Rogers, but Williams’ 2024 QBR would rank #5 nationally if he qualified with enough snaps.
He’ll have a strong RB1 (Jonah Coleman) and WR1 (Denzel Boston) to work with. Out-performing their #52 offensive projection in SP+ feels like a lock. The defense could also take a step forward with new DC Ryan Walters taking over after Steve Belichick leaves to join dad in Chapel Hill. He had a miserable go as a head coach at Purdue, but an elite defensive architect in Illinois.
If this is a top-30 team, the daunting schedule will have the upset opportunities needed to make a run at an at-large bid. Washington hosts Ohio State, Oregon, and Illinois. The tough big road game is at Michigan, but it’s a favorable home/road split.
Deep Sleeper: Minnesota (+1400 to make CFP)
Part of what makes a great sleeper is an unbalanced team. If a program projects to have one near-elite unit and one miserable one, there’s upside if the bad part can simply find a way to be competent.
For the Golden Gophers, the defense (projected 14th in SP+ after finishing 12th last year) is going to lead the way again. PJ Fleck’s offense, meanwhile, is projected 100th. Minnesota struggled to run the ball last year, and deals with the loss of QB Max Brosmer an overhauls on the OL.
The ceiling for Minnesota is the defense staying incredibly strong plus the offense significantly outperforming projections. Redshirt freshman Drake Lindsay beat out Georgia Tech transfer Zach Pyron in the spring, and is a big, tools-y prospect. Ideally, they won’t have to lean on Lindsay too much if they hit on offensive line in the portal and can lean on returning stud RB Darius Taylor and transfer addition AJ Turner (in from Marshall).
With trips to Eugene and Columbus, it won’t be easy. But the other ten games are winnable, and if the offense overachieves a projection like the one I created below is in play. (Shoutout this awesome tool from
).
The defense has to continue operating a high level despite the loss of DC Corey Hetherman to Miami. Fleck promoted new coordinator Danny Collins from within, and its a pretty sad slate of opposing offenses besides the Buckeyes and Ducks1. If the Gophers find themselves on the right side of slugfests with Nebraska and Iowa this team is firmly in the playoff mix.
Intriguing, But No: Michigan State (+3000 to make CFP)
This is shopping deep in the discount bins. But what if we should just throw out Year 1 of Jonathan Smith and Aidan Chiles in East Lansing? The offense in 2024 was completely miserable (110th in F+), leading SP+ to project them in a similar spot this fall (107th).
That would be a massive failure with the talent on hand. The Spartans are 16th in returning offensive production, with Chiles a year more experienced and stud sophomore WR Nick Marsh back.
The defense is also top-40 in returning production (35th). This staff - between Smith’s hand in the offense and Joe Rossi at DC - seems too good for MSU to stay this bad.
The bad news is that even with big improvement, the schedule is ruthless. A week 2 tilt at home against Boston College feels like a must win to set the tone before B1G play. There’s only one conference favorite on the schedule in Penn State, but far too many solid teams (trips to Nebraska, IU, Minnesota, Iowa, and USC + hosting Michigan).
It’s too far to leap in one year without the schedule to enable a frisky run, with a QB that’s still to volatile to win enough of these games.
The Big 12
Under the Radar: Arizona State (+280 to make CFP)
What if our assumptions about Big 12 parity and being impossible to predict are off-base? If there’s a program that could emerge a tier above the rest, ASU is in the best position to make that leap.
I’m cheating our definitions a little bit here including a co-favorite to win the conference. But I can’t shake the feeling the Sun Devils are undervalued (+550 to win the Big 12, 8.5 wins) - they should be the clear favorite, even in this conference of chaos.
Now, Vegas isn’t dumb. Kenny Dillingham’s team went 6-1 in one-possession games, and only finished 22nd in F+ despite the incredible end of 2024. Those are immediate red flags in terms of regression to pair with the loss of their workhorse and heart of the team in Cam Skattebo.
But the Sun Devils are 2nd nationally in returning production, and how many duos of QB + playcaller would you take over Dillingham and Sam Leavitt? The schedule is one of the tougher ones in the Big 12, with many of the toughest games on the road.
But if this team is more like the one that crushed Iowa State and should have upset Texas in the CFP, and less like the one that started 2024, I’m confident they can win enough of the tricky road games (Baylor, Utah, Iowa State). While the committee will never admit it, last year’s postseason also brings some weight to ASU’s name in the scenario they fail to win the conference but are still in the mix for an at-large spot.
Deep Sleeper: Houston (+1600 to make CFP)
Willie Fritz’s first year in Houston - not good! (I’m betting on a lot of 2nd year rebounds). With a 4-8 record and ranking 91st in F+, there weren’t a lot of bright spots. But the Cougars upset two of the better teams in the league in Kansas State and TCU, and nearly added Oklahoma in an ugly slugfest.
In those games the defense carried Houston, and it was the strongest part of the Cougars all year. The defense finished a respectable 41st, and is projected as a top-40 unit this fall per SP+. That’s solid in this conference! The offense was the major sore spot, finishing 118th last year.
This is a bet that a veteran coach like Fritz can make a huge leap on that side of the ball with former A&M 5* Conner Weigman. The Coogs hit the portal super hard, bringing in G5 receivers and a few new linemen to protect Weigman. It’s not crazy to think Weigman’s talent + Fritz can engineer a major rebound on offense (23rd in returning offensive production).
The schedule is pretty friendly too, with Stephen F Austin, Rice, and Oregon State in the non-con. They get five of the bottom projected teams in the Big 12: Arizona, Oklahoma State, Colorado, UCF, and West Virginia. It’s a major long shot, but at +4000 to win the conference, that’s the pond we’re fishing in.
Intriguing, But No: Oklahoma State (+2500 to make CFP)
The Cowboys were brutal in 2024, picked to finished 3rd in the conference preseason and finishing winless in the Big 12. That’s so hard to do! Things were horrific especially on defense (107th in F+).
With Mike Gundy on thin ice, there’s a ton of offseason churn. Todd Grantham comes in to coordinate the defense, which should at a minimum bring a respectable floor to that side of the ball in Stillwater. Transfer QB Hauss Hejny comes in from TCU with a ton of athleticism. A rebound feels very possible!
But the playoff bar is too high. Going to Oregon in the non-conference is a killer. I think they will be much better - but not enough to lift and separate from the rest of the conference, which means Gundy needs insane close game luck in the biggest Big 12 matchups (hosting Baylor, K-State, and Iowa State; at Texas Tech and Kansas).
The SEC
Under the Radar: Tennessee (+300 to make CFP)
Sometimes analytics not knowing offseason dynamics can be a good thing. It’s easy to overreact to loud stories like Nico Iamaleava’s dramatic transfer from Knoxville to UCLA. Since this hit Tennessee is mostly being written off as an SEC and CFP contender.
And while the Vols don’t belong in the top tier of SEC favorites, SP+ still projects them ahead of preseason darlings like Florida, Oklahoma, and South Carolina. The defense - which finished 6th in F+ last year - will be nasty again (projected 7th in SP+).
Can Josh Heupel scheme up something far better than the Volunteers offensive projection (34th?) It’s very possible! The Vols fell 5 spots in SP+ when Nico left, but his replacement (App State’s Joey Aguilar) wasn’t too far off in QBR rating (70.5 for Iamaleava vs 66.4 for Aguilar).
Like most teams this offseason, the Vols will have to bet on a revamped offensive line. And I’d love to feel more confident about Tennessee’s wide receivers Aguilar will be targeting. But maybe less can be more for Heupel, who will be forced to be more creative than if Iamaleava was returning for his third year in the program.
Schedule breaks played a big role in Tennessee making the playoff over other SEC teams in a similar tier last year, and they should help again in 2025. Projections have the Vols with just four games with <70% win probability (UGA, at Bama, OU, at Florida). Avoid a stumble like the Arkansas game last year, split those four games, and its a second straight CFP bid.
Deep Sleeper: Mizzou (+800 to make CFP)
The Tigers had a strange 2024, finding their way to 10 wins with virtually zero buzz. A lot of that was earned through horrible losses - getting blown out on the road at Texas A&M (41-10) and Alabama (34-0).
But it’s wild to think how close Missouri may have been to a playoff berth. They dropped a back-and-forth contest at home against South Carolina 34-30 that might have made the difference. Eli Drinkwitz’s team should have won that game, finishing +10% in success rate but giving up too many big plays down the stretch.
Mizzou is projected in SEC no man’s land again - 21st overall (41st on offense, 22nd on defense). That projection stems from a blend of strong returning production on defense (10th nationally) and big transition on offense (101st).
What if the offense is top-25 caliber, despite the transitions? OC Kirby Moore has posted top-25 offenses the past two years. The scheme will change going from a traditional pocket passer in Brady Cook to more of a dual threat in Penn State transfer Beau Pribula, but maybe that’s a better fit for this roster after a WR talent drain.
Can the Tigers portal haul all hit? Pribula looked solid in limited time in Happy Valley. ULM transfer Ahmad Hardy ran from over 1,300 yards at ULM. New WR Kevin Coleman was nearly a 1,000 yard receiver at Mississippi State. This could be a tough, ground-based attack with enough defense to win close games.
The schedule is a gauntlet on paper, but some of these teams will disappoint. Hosting Alabama is the only game where Mizzou will be a steep underdog, and if they can make it to November with only two losses they’ll be facing programs that may be in turmoil if things haven’t gone well (A&M, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Arkansas).
Mizzou’s route to a CFP feels as reasonable or better than teams like Oklahoma and Florida that are getting a ton of offseason love despite similar power ratings and even rougher schedules.
Intriguing, But No: Vanderbilt (+2200 to make CFP)
Our old friend Clark Lea is doing good things in Nashville, finishing 43rd in F+ last year and winning a bowl game. With the Dores 3rd in returning production, highlighted by Diego Pavia’s return at QB, it’s tempting to dream big dreams about another leap forward.
The schedule will just not let that happen. Using SP+ projections, this Commodores face an incredible number of top teams:
Home: #9 LSU, #21 Missouri, #25 Auburn
Away: #2 Alabama, #5 Texas, #13 Tennessee, #17 South Carolina
That’s seven games against top-25 opponents, and doesn’t include a tricky early road trip to Virginia Tech. Making a bowl game for a second straight year qualifies as an incredible achievement, but even the best possible season for Vandy won’t result in CFP contention.
It’s probably wishful thinking, but I can’t shake the idea the Gophers have a real upset chance at Oregon? I’m low on the Ducks (especially now with Evan Stewart injured - are we sure Dante Moore will be good?).
It’s Oregon’s fifth straight game, on a Friday night (which can channel upsets), featuring cross country travel from Eugene (vs IU) to Piscataway back to Eugene (vs Wisconsin) to Iowa City back home for this one.